Shorts tripled from Aug to Oct because the "in market reports" were that BDR was mining high grade from Duckhead. When, in fact,they were NOT. They were stripping.
Insiders knew the current, in market reports were untrue. And insiders knew the Q3 would be a shocker with low production and very high AISC. This was simply because insiders knew stripping and not mining was going on at Duckhead.
So if you were an insider (knowing what was going on - in reality) you knew the price would be horribly trashed after the quarterly - which is Oct. So the price was shorted from about 60 cents to 30 cents - prior to the Q3.
In August - at the start of the share crashing - I sent a letter to BDR and said 'do you know of any information that is not in the market, that would account for this price crash'. They replied 'NO'. Was that a lie? I will let you decide. I am only telling facts.
Now the way BDR operate is they are very obscure and dense and double meaning in their releases. I did find ONE line in a report saying their current cash position (change of finance) allowed them to be 'more flexible' with their mine plan. But the other current reports in market were 'we are mining high grade from Duckhead in Q3'
In retrospect, the 'more flexible mine plan' could be interpreted as: 'our previous/current in market reports re Q3 are no longer valid'. To be honest, they should have been forthright about what was going on. They kept the operational changes a secret.
Also, there were material movement issues on the ground at this time. But this was not hinted to the market until Sept. Again, pertinent price sensitive information not released in a timely manner to the market (this is my opinion).
So the insiders had a quinella of news known to them. If I recall correctly, the share price was 30ish when the Q3 was released. Then when the shocker hit the market any shorter from 60 cents to 30 cents had chance to orderly unwind down to 18 cents.
Funny, though, it seems the shorters did not unwind much at all, though, looking at that chart - until end Dec. that seems to have been a planned unwind - as some o/s funds had to sell.
So the entire share price massacre / shorting / unwinding seems to have been well played by insiders and their fund mates.
Now, these are all just my observations, and some statement of facts, and some connection of dots and some analysis of evidences. But my dots connect well in my mind. You can decide what you think.
Interestingly, if you read almost any thread here on hotcopper you will learn that the vast majority of ASX companies do a LOT of insider trading. That is, the share price 'magically' moves in the 'right' direction before price sensitive announcements. It is not just BDR. ASX is cowboy land for sure.
And ASIC does not care at all. In the past I have documented breaches and even gathered evidence of some market traders being told 'A' and others being told 'not A'. Participants in the ASX land simply LIEING. And I had documented proof. Did ASIC care. Not at all. ASX is set up mainly to channel money to ASX company directors and management. And also for ASX and ASIC to get their fees (BMWs, high class suburb flats, etc) from overseeing this joke.
Now to put my money where my mouth is I have withdrawn from all ASX shares except for two.. MWR and BDR. But my holdings are tiny compared to my overall fund. I like gold exposure, so I may be wise to trade out of BDR and simply buy some real gold.
ASX. What a joke. They should be ashamed.
BDR. Maybe I have spotlighted them enough for them to think 'oh, my, let us be more transparent to our owners - the shareholders'. But I dont hold BDR at fault. They just operate in an environment where... well, I told you.
To give more evidence. A couple years ago I gave a financial planner about $100k of my money to set up a balanced fund to just grow. My fund is now worth about 50k. His share buys for me lost 10s of thousands. AND he charged me (withdrew from that account I gave him control of) $22,000 (in secret -not telling me) to set up a portfolio of about 7 shares. So that is with the ombudsman. The licensed planner said he would charge me $1,000 per year to manage. He secretly withdrew $11,000 per year.
The entire financial and investment industry in Australia only operates to withdraw as much money as possible from the tricks (I call the retail punter as tricks for the Aussie criminal financial industry)
Oh, why did I give a planner 100k. Well, I was in a big retail fund before the GFC. I asked that fund to move my money into a very conservative portfolio. When the GFC came I lost the same % as everyone else. Yet the big retail fund could not explain why the conservative fund did not behave conservative. And when I withdrew my money they said my capital losses were 'trapped' and I could not even claim them. A verdict my accountant agreed.
THEN I transferred my money to another manager (before the current crook) and THAT manager had all my records for 2-3 years, but then stopped managing, and refused to do the tax returns they said. And I had to pay a new accountant 16,000 just to work out the mess that manager left.
So, in general, I have used between 3 to 4 fund managers / planners over the last 15 years. EVERY ONE did not fulfill their commitments to me to keep my records up to date. EVERY ONE took money they were not allowed to take. EVERY ONE left me worse off than when I contracted them to look after my investments.
THIS is the world of Australian ASX and Financial Planning and Professional Services.
I hope my sad storey will help one or two persons avoid my fate. Please do not trust any financial or ASX person at all. If you give them any hook into your money... they will use it.
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