ASM Chart Thread, page-7201

Ive been having a deep think about ASM's potential long term value as a company.
Full disclosure my own shares have been purchased roughly in thirds between $7.65 and $3.80; this is purely an academic exercise in what I PERSONALLY view as the potential of this company and not intended to influence anyone's investment decisions. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

Also theres no way of knowing when these SP will be realised, unfortunately the shorter's have resumed at the start of last Monday, my own take is the recovery was happening a bit too quick for their liking, they are definitely playing a very fine game as significant positive news will have them scrambling to exit, they clearly think they've got some time yet and/or they would be closing at a loss to try to cover with available sellers on market now that a CR seems increasingly unecessary.

A sustained recovery must wait until the shorts have finally covered or news is released that forces them to cover. It is my opinion that they are proceeding to cover but are trying to keep the SP under their control in the meantime. It is also my opinion that the day we ran up to $9+ dollars was a test run that they initiated to see if they were able to cover and the speed at which it climbed is what convinced them they need to start at a lower base.

BEST CASE SCENARIO 2025
- DZP up and running (~450 M AUD EBITDA ANNUAL)
- 5 METALLISATION PLANTS @ 5200 TPA WITH OFFTAKES (~ 285 M AUD EBITDA)
- NET ANNUAL EARNINGS = 735 M
- DISCOUNT 25% FOR UNCERTAINTY WITH FUEL, INTEREST ETC = 551.25 M
- PE RATIO OF 20 (LYC IS RUNNING AT 30 ATM) GIVES A MC = $11.025 B ($16.537 B @ 30)
- SP (ASSUMING 40% DILUTION TO FUND DZP AND PLANTS) = $41.34 TO $62

Further Upside

1. Discount to net annual earnings could be less than 25% or even positive depending on commodity prices
2. No value given for patents, plant, technology
3. Metallisation plants eventually should operate at 16000 TPA with a significant increase in EBITDA
4. Less extreme dilution

MEDIUM CASE SCENARIO 2025
- DZP up and running (~450 M AUD EBITDA ANNUAL)
- 3 METALLISATION PLANTS @ 5200 TPA WITH OFFTAKES (~ 171.4 M AUD EBITDA)
- NET ANNUAL EARNINGS = 621.4 M
- DISCOUNT 25% FOR UNCERTAINTY WITH FUEL, INTEREST ETC = 466.05 M
- PE RATIO OF 20 (LYC IS RUNNING AT 30 ATM) GIVES A MC = $9.321 B ($13.981 B @ 30)
- SP (ASSUMING 40% DILUTION TO FUND DZP AND PLANTS) = $34.95 TO $52.42

BAD CASE SCENARIO 2025
- DZP UNFUNDED (~0 M AUD EBITDA ANNUAL)
- 1 METALLISATION PLANTS @ 5200 TPA WITH OFFTAKES (~ 57.14 M AUD EBITDA)
- NET ANNUAL EARNINGS = 57.14 M
- DISCOUNT 25% FOR UNCERTAINTY WITH FUEL, INTEREST ETC = 42.86 M
- PE RATIO OF 20 (LYC IS RUNNING AT 30 ATM) GIVES A MC = $857 M ($1.285 B @ 30)
- VALUE IN GROUND OF DZP - 500 M (BASED ON THE CURRENT VALUE OF ARU UNFUNDED UNBUILT MINE)
- SP (KMP ALREADY BUILT) = $8.48 TO $11.15

NOTES -
The real question comes with what we would consider the probabilities of these differing scenarios, in my opinion there's been a lot of negativity in the speculation about the progress at the KMP and DZP funding but I'd remind everyone that theres been no actual bad news, delays yes, but no actual bad news.

Here's some factors I consider

• Why the site works at the DZP?
• Why the site shed?
• Why nominate a FEED contract if things weren't panning out with the idea of being able to fund said contract
• The KCF, who have a much closer eye in terms of what is happening at the KMP, were willing to pay 8.90 AUD per share
• Dave Woodall reiterated the 40 M ebitda target for the KMP in the latest interview
• News out of Korea hinting that the offtake may be for Hyundai
• Why negotiate offtakes if you weren't able to produce?
• When over a million shares hit the market in one trade, why were they snapped up BY THE SHORT SELLERS instead of being left to fester and drop the SP, if what some people have been saying is true, and the short sellers indeed know bad news that we dont, why cover!?

So the way I see it is that the major probability is the medium case scenario above, and we can be looking at a final SP of between $30 to $50.