I've been lobbied to reply and to help by others elsewhere even though some of your August 2023 posts weren't to flattering and BY NO WAY IS THIS ADVICE .......
First things first that was almost a year ago and even if you entered then at 20c I think you've done a marvellous job of holding til now , so well done to YOU !
Now over that period a lot has happened to ASN and I'm sure you've done your DYOR and are well versed in it so I'm sure you don't think that ASN is going no where .
But back to my post about DFS .
The DFS claims an NPV at the low end of $1.306 Billion USD (Net Present Value) this was for contracted clients at $19,000 USD PMT (Per Metric Tonne) with a total out put of 13,074 Mtpa (Metric Tonnes Per Annum) , this yielded with an average annual EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest Tax Debt & Amortisation) (Gross Profit) of $153 million USD .
Now understanding this there are 2 ways usually to calculate value based on the data at hand and some assumptions:
A) currently it looks like that production output maybe wound back to 10,000 Mtpa not because of anything other than what it was original designed at due to throughput .
B) i think it's a safe assumption to say that $19,000 USD is a fair amount to arrive at as in the same DFS it states ASN believe this to be the LOM (Life of mine) average sale price even though the LG contract states that it will be a market based price mechanism and it's also not far away from the current market pricing I also think it will be the same for the other contracts that I believe will be announced shortly .
C) considering this we need to do some maths
1) 10000 / 13074 = 0.765 x 1.306 Billion = $998,929,172 USD revised NPV considering the assumption that all our contracts are locked in and assuming the project is fully funded then you would add that number factoring in FOREX (Foreign Exchange) currently 1.52 as a conversion factor to the Market Capitalisation currently that would then make the total Capitalisation increase so here's the next sum .
$998929172 x 1.52 = $1,518,372,342 AUD + $174,220,000 AUD (MC) = $1,692,592,342 AUD MC dispersed through 1.29 billion shares would be 1,692,592,342 / 1,290,000,000 = $1.31 per share .
2) This a calculation based on all the above assumptions and a multiple of EBITDA . So for miners there's a rule of thumb of 3 x EBITDA MULTIPLES PAID so again EBITDA was $153 million USD x 1.52 for FOREX = $232,560,000 AUD in EBITDA add 3 multiples of this and it comes to $930,240,000 add the current MC $174,220,000 = $1,102,460,000 in value dispersed through 1.29 billion shares would be
1,102,460,000 / 1,290;000,000 = 85.5c per share .
Now a word of warning as an example of method 2 PLS has an EV (enterprise value) of $11 billion AUD and a current annual EBITDA of $1.89 Billion AUD so 11 billion / 1.89 billion = a 4.82 multiple of EBITDA hence why PLS has nearly 22% shorts applied to it because the market believes its well over valued .
Now I sincerely hope this helps you and others I'm sure there will be commentary and that's fine but this is how I usually go about it .
Warmest Regards And always remember to DYOR TT
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