Automakers and Nickel consumers are exposing themselves to high risk by lack of diversification and relying on Indonesia to supply 60% of world’s Nickel supply in a very short period of time. No easy feat.
Indonesia will pursue ramp up but at great cost.
The cracks are already showing with the environmental effects of mining a large scale low grade Laterite project on an island that is heavily dense in population and rainforest with high rainfall. Locals are fighting back against mining companies that have cleared spice farms and income.
The coast line is home to a biodiversity of rare and endangered species and coral reefs. The sea is currently red with tailings dam run off, killing marine life and fishing industries.
The ramp up relies on Chinese investment and technology. This is Chinese controlled supply and will not meet requirements for Inflation reduction Act (financial incentives for EV supply chains by US and FTA countries).
The dirty laterite ore will undergo HPAL processing requiring coal power and chemical processing.
I think just like DRC cobalt the world will soon push back on indonesia supplied nickel leaving a huge supply gap for Western miners to fill with redistribution of capital to accelerate projects.
This situation is a deck of cards waiting to fall and the longer Automakers take to secure ‘green’ supply in Canada the more it will cost them as Aston will only be further along its development route.
End users will not like to know that their EV played a part in destroying the air, land and sea. Especially when you have the alternative of Aston that is hydro powered and tailings can potentially capture carbon credits in the billions.
Cracks are showing, there is a shift in the foundation of how mining is done.
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