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jogo

3,701 Posts.

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02/10/23

12:05

Post #: 70128291
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Originally posted by FrankGermany: ↑

I bought my first electrc car nearly 11 years ago, and even then I was convinced that I will never in my life drive an ICE again.
Since then electric cars have developed much faster than anyone would have expected. Particularly range.
So, you can assume I have watched the marked as regards to batteries.

I am not at all convinced that nickel demand for electric cars will really be as high as us nickel investors expect and are made to believe.
There are simply too many competing technologies which are evolving so fast that it is quite possible that 10 years from now there will be no nickel
at all in batteries. Or much less than expected.

There is for example lithium iron phosphate. Already more than 50% of all new Tesla cars have an LFP battery. This share will rise when the
technology and range get better.
Recently the refreshed Model 3 Highland was introduced. This has a new battery, probably LMFP = lithium manganese iron phosphate.
The range of this new version is about 10% more at 556 km.

I have had 7 electric cars until now, of which 4 were Tesla. The first 3 of those were long range models with lithium ion batteries and a nominal range of just over 600 km. Now for the first time I have a standard range Model 3 with an LFP battery. Just don`t need more range than that has, and with
10% more range of the LMFP battery that certainly won`t change in the future.
Where will those batteries be in 5...10 years. They will improve further, and with any improvement the need for batteries containing nickel will decline.

It doesn`t stop here. There is sodium ion coming around the corner. This will be much cheaper than even LFP and LMFP.
There may be other technologies ahead, so much research is going on.

In the near future there will definitely be a market for nickel in batteries in longest range cars. Aviation is another market. Storage no way, too expensive.
Whether nickel will have any place in 10 years or not is totally open to me.

Still, I am convinced that nickel is a good investment. If you invest into a low cost and sustainable producer, because the high demand and price we dream about may never materialize.

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Check out vanadium flow batteries for bulk power storage. They have a number of advantages over lithium. Already in Australia, there have been 2 (or is it 3?) serious fires at Li battery farms.

ASO Price at posting: 2.9¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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