Based on the information provided in the “3A668465_RLT.pdf”...

Based on the information provided in the “3A668465_RLT.pdf” document, the potential acquisition of Renergen Limited (JSE: REN, ASX: RLT) by ASP Isotopes Inc. (NASDAQ: ASPI) is structured as an all-share offer, with the consideration ratio set at 0.09196 ASPI shares for every 1 Renergen share (paragraph 6.1). This means the value of the offer to Renergen shareholders is directly tied to the price of ASPI’s common stock on the NASDAQ. The transaction’s success is subject to various conditions, including regulatory approvals and shareholder approval, with a longstop date of 30 September 2025 (paragraph 9.1). The document also mentions that the scheme could become operative by the end of August 2025 (paragraph 5.1.6), which aligns with your reference to a potential acquisition in August.

If the ASPI stock price increases on the NASDAQ between now (May 21, 2025) and the potential acquisition completion in August 2025, the implied value of the offer for Renergen shareholders would also rise, assuming the consideration ratio remains unchanged. Here’s how this could impact the Renergen share price:

1. Direct Correlation to ASPI Price: The offer value for each Renergen share is calculated as the ASPI share price multiplied by the consideration ratio (0.09196). For example, if the ASPI price rises from its 30-day VWAP of USD 5.69 (as of May 16, 2025, per paragraph 4.7.3) to, say, USD 7.00, the implied offer value per Renergen share would increase from approximately ZAR 2.90 (USD 5.69 × 0.09196 × 18.04 ZAR/USD) to ZAR 3.56 (USD 7.00 × 0.09196 × 18.04 ZAR/USD), based on the exchange rate of ZAR 18.04 per USD noted on May 16, 2025. This represents a potential increase of about 23% in the offer value.

2. Market Anticipation: As the ASPI price climbs, market participants may anticipate the higher offer value and bid up the Renergen share price on the JSE and ASX to reflect this. The Renergen share price would likely move toward the implied offer value, adjusted for the probability of the deal’s success and any premiums typically associated with takeovers (e.g., the 41.3% premium cited in paragraph 4.7.3 based on May 16, 2025 prices).

3. Liquidity and Sentiment: Renergen’s current financial position includes liquidity concerns due to delays in the Virginia Gas Project (paragraph 4.7), which the acquisition aims to address with ASPI’s funding (paragraph 14). A rising ASPI price could signal stronger investor confidence in the combined entity’s prospects, potentially boosting Renergen’s price further, especially if the market views the deal as increasingly likely to close.

4. Risk Factors: However, the Renergen price may not fully track ASPI’s rise if uncertainties persist, such as the fulfillment of conditions (e.g., lender consents, regulatory approvals, or the Scheme Resolution in paragraph 9) or a “Material Adverse Change” (paragraph 9.1.8). If these risks materialize, the Renergen price could lag or decline despite an ASPI price increase.

5. Arbitrage Opportunity: In the lead-up to August 2025, arbitrageurs might buy Renergen shares and short ASPI shares to lock in the spread between the current Renergen price and the implied offer value. This activity could push the Renergen price upward toward the offer value as ASPI’s price rises, assuming no significant deal risk.

Conclusion

If the ASPI price climbs on the NASDAQ between now and August 2025, the Renergen share price is likely to increase proportionally, reflecting the higher value of the all-share offer. The extent of the increase will depend on the ASPI price movement, the ZAR/USD exchange rate, market confidence in the deal’s completion, and prevailing trading conditions. Based on the current VWAPs and exchange rate, a 10% rise in ASPI’s price (e.g., to USD 6.26) could lift the implied offer value by approximately 10%, potentially pushing Renergen’s price from its recent ZAR 6.68 VWAP toward ZAR 7.35 or higher, adjusted for market dynamics. However, this is speculative and subject to the deal’s progress and exterdnal factors. For a precise assessment, monitoring ASPI’s NASDAQ performance and the deal’s status closer to August 2025 would be key.