Yep, 1SUNTzu we don't disagree. I suppose it depends on trading...

Yep, 1SUNTzu we don't disagree. I suppose it depends on trading and investment style. I'm a stickler for TA to plan entries and exits and capital management after 40 years of doing it. There are a number of trade cycles I use, and compare from Gann, Fibonacci in Elliot Waves etc but one I like to use for a quick glance which is colour coded as the Weinstein Trade Cycle as seen in the chart below. Any trade cycle is a map of money flow when its all said and done. Attention must be paid to it and attention must be paid to what we can afford to invest in managing risk.

What the trade cycle tells me, is what to expect in the trade structure of that cycle, and to trade that structure accordingly. I prefer to have a core holding as a position and trade the swings to reduce average cost by pyramiding. If the opportunities are sustained you can be free carried. Its not everyone's style, but I have found it has worked for me over the years having tried other methods.

General comments
There is a certain amount of cryptic intelligence to apply between cycles, particularly Stage 4 and Stage 1, where the initial accumulation takes place often indicated by hidden volume which I have been known to post. This maybe drillers or more often than not, smart money and position traders setting up accumulating. The smart money gains shares by stealth and maybe because their personal information networks are stronger, particularly if firms approach them for finance where the firms plans are all laid out before them and these people will take advantage of it. (It seems that was a problem where past deals could be viewed as a shafting). Sometimes firms try many avenues and word gets out among networks for better or worse. Usually, Stage one, is a slow growth stage where more awareness gradually creeps in. For some the risk V reward ratio is too low, so there is a bias towards obtaining fundamental knowledge to estimate value in the ground for a decision to enter. There are plenty of references and courses available on this subject for the rule of thumb. Because I specialize in mining investment as a general practice like many others, we get a feel for the rule of thumb unlike those without that experience who rely on decisions based on professional reports to make their move. Once those professional reports are announced and the media moves, enthusiasm builds and institutions may be interested when the stock meets their criteria. Their risk has to be minimised due to the client base and of course the cost structure in running their business. They may enter in Stage 2. But in doing so, their returns are less. So it depends on a holders tolerance for risk.

Stage 2, is not yet upon ASR in this cycle, but it the safest part of the trade cycle in which to trade where speculation is greater. Institutions leave this market at Stage 3 and more commonly than not, an orphan period sets in before institutions re-invest before actual production becomes established, looking for growth and income flow. In the meantime, others trade patterns and channels etc for profit in the swings on the way down in trend.

If you are a speculator, which we are, at this end of the market, the decision to invest maybe best based on risk and reward to satisfy targets within the trend and swings. Some position traders are buying value in the ground at cheap prices from which you can weather future fluctuations in the trade cycle.