Propaganda aside, Assad's forces have deployed a lot more heavy equipment to the North Syria front that Turkey, Russia or the US probably expected. The old T55s maybe extremely vulnerable anti-tank weapons but they can dish it out from a distance.
I note that while Turkey and Syria have hit each others positions directly, most of the fighting involves Turkey's Islamist militias rather than the TSK itself. Syria and Turkey are holding back from a situation of total war against each other (for now).
I observe that Assad's tanks are not being quickly destroyed by Turkey's air power. Nor do I observe Assad's MIGs overhead.
I note that following the so-called cease fire, Islamist Militias continued their offensive on a number of fronts to keep the SDF engaged on those fronts thus giving Turkey reason to pursue a much wider offensive. The SDF says they are deploying their Christian and Yazidi fighters to the front however their numbers would not be enough IMO to do without the Kurdish backbone of their army.
What I don't know is the current state of cosiness between Assad's Regime and the Autonomous Administration of North Syria. The stupid rhetoric remains much the same however there are hints of rapport far below the surface.
Trump's stated focus on the oil (something he can at least understand) may fit into a larger picture that actually supports the longer term position of both Assad and the Autonomous Administration ……. because the US presence keeps both Turkey and Iran out of there (for now). Whether this is an intended outcome or just incidental to events is anyone's guess.
Russia sits in the middle of a very dangerous balancing game. Where will it lead? We could be seeing a prelude to total war or it could lead nowhere. I am hoping that another stalemate will emerge however the range of sociopathic political egos that are driving this conflict could take it anywhere. With its own interests in mind, Russia will undoubtedly aim to carrot and stick some of those egos but the risk of major escalation remains high.
A more geopolitically aware POTUS could do a lot to bring this crazy and disingenuous conflict to an actual end but that isn't going to happen this month or next. And so Russia will continue to play the role of fight referee on this front while being directly involved in the fight on another (Idlib).
