The stock has not won my trust but no stock ever has. I trade...

First 74 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
expectancy

408 Posts.

1

02/06/17

15:50

Post #: 25068663
Share

Originally posted by goldbear77 ↑

not sure whether to laugh or cry - people offering opinions about sp's based on nothing other than their opinions... thats quality time right there

if you;re gonna talk sp outcomes pls offer a technical or other reason. otherwise its all so much bs

as for stock;s needing news - it didnt need news to fall (much of the time) and so it doesnt need news to rise (much of the time). buyers and sellers make bets forecasting what news will bring.

investors wil be frenetically handicapping what those Ohm rollouts will deliver in 1st year earnings then working out how investable they think stock might be but with very little to go on about cash burn vs earnings margin vs rollout speed

but just consider this - last year I posted about an article that talked about tech stocks being valued at between 5x and 20x price to sales

if you take the conservative approach and just look at 5x price to sales for BUD on Buddy Ohm alone - and you use say 500 (aussie) + 1000 (us) as a ballpark for year 1 installation/fees. they may get more installed - but you have to allow for a sliding scale of pro ratad monthly fees as its a progressive rollout - not all happens day 1

then you would be looking at 1500 units x 1500 monthly fee x12 months (i wont bother with currency differentials for this theoretic)
= $27m x 5 (avg p/s ratio) = $135m implied market capitalisation
= 16.7c per share not including escrowed shares/options

If you use the more aggressive US market approach for this kind of growth rate then a price to sales ratio of 10-15x certainly wouldnt be unreasonable - ie $270m or $405m market cap

Facebook - obviously in a much more mature market positin - trades at 15x price to sales

thats before we consider the other 2 business streams

so it doesnt necessarily need news - but obviously more news can help lift confidence

the real impediment here is this stock was thrown off nearly every radar after the failed mergers and stock price slump

takes time to win people;s trust that a stock has turned around sustainably

Expand

The stock has not won my trust but no stock ever has. I trade sentiment not businesses.

I have just bought the breakout based on "sentimental" reasons (pardon the pun).

Win big, lose small.

BUD Price at posting: 7.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

88E

HotCopper users smell capital raising as 88 Energy says "significant update" at Phoenix

BPM

BPM Minerals hits high-grade gold at the Claw Project WA; shares jump 86%

EXR

Essential Energy conference: Elixir talks up unlocking QLD's Taroom Trough

HVN

Harvey Norman clocks subdued gains as Echo Law's junk warranty class action kicks off

Essential Energy conference: Streamlining approvals key to the green energy transition

There are more pages in this discussion • 45 more messages in this thread...

First 74 Last

Add BUD (ASX) to my watchlist

The stock has not won my trust but no stock ever has. I trade...

Top Stories

HotCopper users smell capital raising as 88 Energy says "significant update" at Phoenix

BPM Minerals hits high-grade gold at the Claw Project WA; shares jump 86%

Essential Energy conference: Elixir talks up unlocking QLD's Taroom Trough

Harvey Norman clocks subdued gains as Echo Law's junk warranty class action kicks off

Essential Energy conference: Streamlining approvals key to the green energy transition

Featured News