The Market is very difficult to predict and usually full of surprises .
While your analysis of the price action between now and when the drilling starts appears sound there are multiple events that could put the SP up or down .
I think the bias is towards the up side .It appears an asymmetric risk .
The share market is forward looking and three months is not the distant future .
Present selling by shareholders that have been locked in for years and those taking small profits after being shareholders for only a short time .
Great opportunity to accumulate a large holding or make a large holding bigger .
Infrastructure announcements , sales of acreage in the Montney , further analysis of near by production , movement in oil and gas prices all could jagg the price around .If you wanted to buy the whole project you might make the offer now .Probably would be knocked back at this early stage but would definitely give the SP a kick .
Up to now every time the price has moved to 6.2 cents or above it has met a flood of selling from off the screen .
Eventually it will push through , all imho .
gltah
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