asset sales or takeover bid???, page-3

Great rally today, I think it’s safe to say that as the deadline of asset sale news looms, the SP can only be upwards.

I’ll be very surprised if we didn’t see cash up Origin to make a bid for some assets to replace the earnings they’ve lost on the CSG sale to Conoco Phillips, or AGK making a play for their eastern assets for synergy or even their assets in the west (including Alinta) to expand their geographical base or (my hope) a sovereign fund to purchase the whole lot, remember that the AUD is still low therefore a purchase is still cheaper than when the AUD was nearing 95+ cents US.

Or no deal happens, and assume for the next 3 years BBP use all their earnings to keep the banks happy, in FY12 when the economy is back at full swing and assume their Net Asset is back to its current net asset value $1B (conservative measures) and sell it off. This would make the sp worth about $1.30. That’s a ROE of about 1398% ($1.30/9.3 cents)!!!

Obviously I’m being quite bias and relatively bullish on the last outcome, but its not entirely impossible considering 18 months ago this stock was close to $3 a share.

Good luck all holders, calling 10 cents tomorrow, happy to hold long term.