'Early as usual ya.' Working different time zones- pain in the...

'Early as usual ya.'

Working different time zones- pain in the rear!

'1. You see AU$ possibly down to what level?'

Who knows? IMO 85c by Xmas - the pundits are calling for 90c by then, I guess we will see who is on the right side.

'2. If Lynas can book solid profits, why would it need to refinance, leave aside expansionary & so on?'

The interest charges are going to become an increasing charge as denominated in US$. By mid 2015 some amounts of capital are repayable, and a big chunk in 2016. From memory all $400m must be repaid by 2017. IMO, LYC will not generate the sort of income to repay these loans from profits, and thus must refinance within the next year or two.

IMO if they can get a CR away at anywhere near 75C to pay off the loans then they probably should consider. The longer these loans are outstanding, without the expected higher profits to cover them, the harder negotiations will be for any rollover with existing lenders.

The Sojitz loan is currently attracting interest at 5.25% over LIBOR, and contains conditions about LAMP2 running for 3 months at an unknown production level and COP. MT Kellet has conditions about LAMP1 production for 6 months. LYC does not need these conditions hanging over it, for any longer than necessary.

Thee lenders are in a stronger position every month that passes. Why would LYC take these to the wire before attempting to resolve?