Cafa and I agree for once!
I got $26.40 as a basket using Tech metals data for the distribution at Mt Weld CLD and Frontier's published price.
We have some pretty good COP estimates (including Mt Weld, royalties etc) of $13-14 both phases and $18-19 phase 1 only. (And a program to reduce these.) Add about a buck or 2 for corporate.
So Lynas (as EN has said) can survive and make a modest profit in these terrible market conditions.
Moly is losing heaps and massively in debt. Baotou closed down for several months. It's not likely that any startups (besides India) will get funds in this environment. All this IMO should leave Lynas as the market leader ex-China.
assistance regarding current basket price, page-8
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