Yep, maybe by 2026 / 2028 nickel will go back into a deficit. However, that's no good to us today and Qpm won't be able to go to financiers and say oh we think nickel will be $25k in 2028 so that's what we based our DFS on.
QPM will need to run it's DFS numbers based on the price of nickel around the time its completed ( Or an AVG over X amount of time) and be conservative.
And anyone thinking the govt will fund this no matter what is just talking foolishly. The govt will back the project if it makes financial sense.
The lower the IRR the more of the pie will need to be given to get finance over the line imo.
So imo the $500mil EBITDA is gone. Until they prove HPA is a go ahead, cobalt got a 50% drop and nickel 20% and to offset these massive declines we got a coal seam gas deal.
