but no one thinks this. I personally just trust the modelling...

but no one thinks this.

I personally just trust the modelling and reasoning which indicates the total global supply of Nickel will be insufficient to meet forecast demand within the next 5 years... Even with Indonesia pumping out immense amounts of nickel, the total global demand will exceed supply, its the same story for most battery metals. There is a separate issue obviously that if the prices rocket, then EV demand will drop as their component costs will be simply too high.

Unless the gigafactories being built today to produce NMC batteries somehow invest immense sums of money to re-tool before they have even hit capacity, then I would argue theres enough room for nearly all of us.

QPM will make money at lower prices too, with byproduct credits our nickel is basically free (provided a few key assumptions around HPAL.)

I agree NPV might (arguably should) go down, but if we are lucky so will cost given the gas deal, OEM partnerships, and global inflation easing a little. Even HIO mentioned recently their costs were "becoming more realistic". From my perspective I can see many costs stabilizing. It all comes down to how good this OEM deal really is. The Cost estimate will run this show.