Using this as a...

Using this as a guide:
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023

Positives for Nickel-based Li-ion batteries:
- Around 95% of the LFP batteries for electric LDVs went into vehicles produced in China (p11).
As the IRA & European supply chains are built out, I expect nickel-based chemistries to be preferred in these regions.
- The global vehicle fleet has a long way to go to be fully electrified.
Based on the IEA's 2021 & 2022 EV reports, I estimate 40M EVs by end of 2023.
Thats out of an estimated 1.446 billion vehicles, or 2.7%!
- Long range/heavy duty users are just starting to get electrified.
While global EV car sales are projected to be 18% of total car sales this year (p8), just 4.5% of buses and 1.2% of trucks in 2022 were electric (p11)
- Volume users are just getting started.
Did you know India is now the world's most populated country?
It and the fourth most populous country, Indonesia, only had 80,000 EVs sold in 2021 (which included Thailand, p8)
- The most popular vehicle types support nickel chemistries (SUVs, utes/pickups, large cars) often have batteries that are two- to three-times larger than small cars, requiring more critical minerals (p10 & thank you @trta)
- Demand for nickel from EVs is just getting started.
In 2022, about 60% of lithium, 30% of cobalt and 10% of nickel demand was for EV batteries.
Only five years prior, these shares were around 15%, 10% and 2%, respectively (p11)
- In 2022, lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) remained the dominant battery chemistry with a market share of 60%, followed by lithium iron phosphate (LFP) with a share of just under 30%, and nickel cobalt aluminium oxide (NCA) with a share of about 8% (p57)
- Battery manufacturers may offset raw material price increases with more efficient pack production costs (p61). Think Tesla and others now using the pack as a structural component, and getting better efficiencies of scale.
- Policy makers are continuing to set more ambitious EV targets/incentives, as both climate change effects, consumer EV benefits & manufacturing EV benefits become more apparent (p72 onwards)

Negatives for Nickel-based Li-ion batteries
- LFP & our own Lord Voldemort.
I acknowledge lithium ion phosphate has become a very popular chemistry, but disagree it will disrupt nickel significantly.
IMO the stationary energy storage market where its higher safety but lower density and larger space requirements are suited, will chew a significant portion to keep up with the seemingly daily announcements of grid-scale batteries.
Together with impediments in the lithium mining & processing space (capex blowouts/permitting delays/ramp up issues/political skullduggery), we will still see Li-ion cell constraints for years, and an all hands on deck need from both chemistries.