Thank you very much for sharing the IEA's review Mortt!
Apart from the Review, which is a very insightful read, the IEA has also released its Critical Minerals Data Explorer, which visualizes critical mineral demand based off of several scenarios.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/critical-minerals-data-explorerAs we can see in the snapshot below, the 'Base Case' for nickel demand under the 'Announced Pledges Scenario' for Electric Vehicles shows a significant increase in demand for Nickel. The explanatory text also shows that the revised data they used accounts for a higher uptake of LFP, which is largely offset by a faster shift to higher nickel chemistries.
Nickel demand forecast for EVs in the snapshot above:
2022: 325.9 kt
2025: 709.3 kt
2030: 1497.6 kt
2035: 2440.7 kt
2040: 3040.2 kt
2045: 3138.8 kt
2050: 3272.5 kt
A casual 1005% increase in nickel demand for EVs from 2022 to 2050.
And this is just the demand to meet currently announced pledges. The 'Net Zero by 2050 Scenario' shows a significantly higher uptake of nickel over this period. Since announced pledges are not enough to meet the Paris Climate goals of 2 degrees warming, let alone 1.5 degrees, I think it's safe to assume that pledges to cut emissions faster will occur over the coming years.
I don't think we will get much more authoritative evidence than the IEA showing that nickel demand will significantly increase despite the rising popularity of alternative battery chemistries. It is also quite clear that there is no way Indonesia's nickel reserves will allow them to oversupply the nickel market given the soaring demand in the medium to long-term.
As Dr Grocott rightly mentioned, "the world needs every nickel project that's out there".
