Thanks
@PieChart, appreciated. Be nice to hear your thoughts on links you post, other than figjamming
My take from a couple of listens:
• Considerable shorting going on, hard to see nickel price dropping too much further
• Expectations on Indo announcements on mining quotas by end of year. Noting Indo has a larger market share than OPEC does of oil; makes sense for them to control supply so Indo gets most value for their product
• Confirmation on Indo ban on new nickel NPI smelters, designed on concerns on their ore reserves being used up too quickly
• Indo laterite deposits are grading down from historical 2.5 to 1.5%
• Chinese have overbuilt smelting capacity and could potentially drain all the resources in 10-15 years. Quotas would extend the resource life so a couple of generations benefit
• US/EU auto/battery makers interest over past three months on securing non-Indo nickel has ratcheted up, being mindful of the lack of new global discoveries, and their need for a supply of low carbon & safe jurisdiction nickel
• Sumitomo only one to successfully leach laterite outside of China
• One Aussie junior announced this week pushed out their feasibility study into mid-24, with their prelim OPEX higher, metallurgy test work indicated variability in ore; building and operating in some parts of Australia definitely not cheap.
• Q&A around financing asked why don’t companies just stop spending money if studies are not going to be favorably received in this stage of the market cycle. Answer was if you’re pretty sure you’ve got a viable project, you push on (without too much dilution) and be one of the first ready out of the gate when the market turns; if you’re not so sure, then dial it back and sit tight for a while and wait until market improves.
So it makes sense that low prices hurts Indo producers too! Sell less for more is more sustainable.
QPM have run up against the capex balloon, but you would think it could be much worse for a miner gearing up to build in remote parts of Australia.
There’s been no mention of ore variability to date, so I think we have that covered (and supply is shored up with binding agreements to more than cover stage 1).
We've pushed on with our studies (surely a good sign according to the above!), spending much more than a typical DFS, mostly due to the pioneering process involved, and the extra caution required by those with the purse strings in this tight capital market
Looks like macro market developments are slowly swinging in our favour
BTW,
NRF website is now up, board hopefully finalised, so hopefully some initial funding for projects by years end?
Have a great weekend all, MM
