Hi Pie, I understand this view, share your hopes for 4680's...

Hi Pie, I understand this view, share your hopes for 4680's /Ultium, although think your take about China competition will be more nuanced.

While it seems lazy Aussies are happy to buy the cheapest thing going, and be damned about the product's background, I'm not convinced the Chinese EV companies (plural) will rule the world/force western automakers to compete unrealistically on price.

Part of the problem is too many of the western automakers are kicking the EV can down the road, scared at the dollars the transition requires (but of course, will the cost be any cheaper if delayed? IMO of course not). Once they get their EV and battery factories built, then their returns improve.

Really thankful the South Koreans, of which two of their powerhouses are QPM shareholders and offtake partners, are No.2 in the battery space, nickel-focussed and sensing the hesitation of your GMs, Ford's, VW's etc and going hard.

EU has their Chinese EV subsidy investigation underway and may impose tariffs/Battery Pass may be the saviour for blocking dirty EV sales.
Similarly, USA already has Chinese tariffs and the IRA's FEOC requirements get progressively more restrictive.

I think the cheap Chinese LFP models will have their place and can find alternative markets in Asia/Africa/Sth America.
There is a whole lot of support for and incoming growth in energy dense applications where nickel excels:
- Long range/premium/luxury cars (Spread out Aussies especially seem to need more to counter range anxiety)
- Utes/SUVs (Australia and US biggest vehicle segments; heavy vehicles to begin with and which need a huge LFP battery or a nice nickel one to get sufficient range)
- Trucks & buses (another factor of huge, whose uptake has barely begun)
- Heavy duty/industry vehicles (garbage collection trucks - can't wait for these and get a better sleep / earthmoving & mining equipment / fire trucks / VTOLs / shipping etc etc.

I've positivity also on Indonesia recognising their current industry model has more downside than they will be comfortable with med-long term and will reign in unbridled supply. They'll want to see better Ni price! They'll want to get their environmental situation in hand quick smart if they wish to sell any nickel product in the EU or US. They'll want to see less $ going offshore to China (witness refinery & carmakers setting up in Indo and using a Chinese supply chain and only locals for low paid labour).

Geopolitically, if Chinese do anything stupid with Taiwan, IMO this would be the trigger for a Western consumer backlash, similar to Russian products, and their EV sales would plummet.

Yes Chinese domestic real estate will curb stainless, but they could probably redirect that by accelerating their Belt and Road projects all over the globe without demand dropping too much?

Enough rambling. It's Friday night and time to clock off and enjoy the weekend.
Look forward to any Sydney BMI insight, news of Minister King's ROK/Japan tour and some positivity returning amongst holders.
QPM soonish to be On Top!