The way I see it it’s an investment in future and not necessarily just relating to Ni etc, but also what it can bring to local economy and flow on in overseas ventures, which can also include political relations.
Bringing it back to my post, forecast (sorry I don’t have them with me now) numbers for Ni are much higher than todays price and therefore FID should be based on that.
If I was to apply your way of thinking, if Ni price was high now and tech proceeding, they have somewhat the same chance of falling below that magical $20k.
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