Pie, IMO the government will be forward thinking and looking to:
a) not roll over and give the global nickel industry to Indonesia and China
b) support best in class facilities that meet the new green/ESG credentials the Resources Minister is spruiking across the globe.
The Kwinana alumina refinery shutdown announcement in January acknowledged the facility was over 60 years old, and also in a
'constrained location'.
Not applicable to QPM.
Today's announcement by BHP that it is cutting contractors at its Kalgoorlie nickel smelter (sorry, behind an AFR paywall for me) also indicates that facility is over 50 years old. And remember Nickel West is spread across WA and Kal is not in exactly a low cost location.
Project's like QPM's TECH are looking to do exactly what you're looking at - staying above the incentive price. The team are doing it in three ways IMO:
1. We still don't know how low LME nickel price affects QPM's ore supply price and the project's profitability/margins - perhaps we would still be in the green, particularly with our suite of co-products spread across agriculture and construction sectors off-setting shrinking core product pricing. Our hematite pellets would be bringing in big coin at the present stage of the IO cycle.
2. The long time & $ spent on technical studies has reduced the major OPEX cost (gas) by 10%
3. QPME's ownership of the MGP will further provide secure, stable OPEX, as well as third party revenue through TPS electricity generation and gas supply to other industrial users.
Government assistance to keep aging refineries operational is going to be a hard sell, much like it has been in the coal fired power station part of the electricity sector, though some differences are nickel is a key energy transition metal and Aussie nickel producers are far less GHG intensive than the competition just to our north, even in our aging plants.
A new kid on the block who is able to:
- Tick the box on advanced manufacturing and zero refining waste (supporting the govt's Aussie ESG green and bold push)
- Tick the box on converting flared methane to industrial use (supporting the government's Global Methane Pledge)
- Tick the box on supporting a Pacific neighbour and European ally (repairing Pacific climate change apathy and French sub sensibilities)
- Tick the box on powering QLD's capital of the north AND having no negative impact on The Reef
- Tick the box on supporting both our closest ally the US (sorry Minister Farrell!) and fourth largest trading partner SK, and their push to be part of the non-China battery ecosystem
Would be looking pretty attractive for support. Put away the red herrings '
distant future' & 'start producing something'.
The recent industry push (and whispers of government acknowledgement) for a 10% production credit for refineries to regain some global competitiveness would also improve the FID metrics would it not?
BTW, nickel is now at the international diplomatic level:
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/penny-wong-and-the-chinese-foreign-minister-have-met-heres-what-they-talked-about/lf19bewu3QPM is not a 50 year old refinery needing plenty of TLC, an aging coal fired power station from a bygone era, or a car manufacturer making vehicles that are out of date. QPM is in the vanguard of the clean energy transition's future metals refining. I'm pretty sure there are plenty in all levels of government who see that
(sorry to see you go Mayor Jenny).
(20min delay)
