Last summer pricing had days like Monday but because such low gas availability at that time particularly in December they missed out on so much potential value. This time around, permitting they continue achieving steady growth + new wells, they will likely have dual cycle running on each of these occurrences. Demand for electricity broke all time highs last summer and a really ugly cocktail can be brewing particularly in QLD. If they have ANY supply issues whatsoever (such as 7/44 coal units being offline), I have no doubt the price will reach the 7 day cumulative price cap threshold for QLD. It's usually around Dec/Jan, where over 1/3 (almost 1/2 in some instances) of the month it is raining but extremely humid, that I think the cumulative price cap can be tested - low renewable availability coupled with any supply issues with coal, with all time high demands for electricity will be very ugly. From the AEMO: "In the AEMO’s August 2023 ESOO, the 1-in-2 year peak demand level for QLD was 9,932 MW for Summer 2024, and the 1-in-10-year peak was projected to be 10,373 MW. Last night the operational demand level reached 11,005 MW during the 17:00 interval (21st Jan 2024).
Renewable has alot of capacity, but the ability for it to coincide with peak demands still remains questionable.
QPM Price at posting:
3.4¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
