You have to weigh up all the new renewables that are coming online and see if it will align with the increasing demand for electricity, THEN take into account coal fired power stations retiring. Eraring, which has nameplate of 2880MW, was supposed to be offline by 2025 but the government have asked it to be extended for 2 more years (the intervention by the NSW Government is not an upfront payment, but rather a commitment to cover up to 80% of any losses incurred for the next two years), so clearly they are not getting enough renewable projects off the ground. Why you say? Major cost blowouts, particularly mega projects, they honestly just aren't financially viable but because of the green transition, they are being put up regardless of cost and project economics. You will need 6 Mt Fox Wind Farms just to account for the loss of Eraring. Projected to cost just over $1.1 billion, but Snowy 2.0 was supposed to be $2 billion but now look at it... $12billion+. I understand the feasibility studies are taken at separate times and inflationary periods etc etc and I understand that wind turbines are a much simpler cookie cutter approach, but they are still subject to cost blowouts. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they push back deadlines and keep coal powered station on longer as reality slaps the government in the face - we have just seen this week across the grid and particularly in SA when you rely too heavily on JUST renewables even at LOW points in electricity demand.
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