It's not a simple as comparing Kidston to Eraring either. The biggest risk to a system like TPS comes from batteries, because by it's very nature it's a peaking plant and relies on high electricity prices to offset the operational costs. Batteries however can charge during the day when solar makes the grid price negative, so then at the evening peak they can discharge at a lower price and be profitable, i.e. Bouldercombe is discharging at prices as low as $130/MW whereas gas hovers around $150/MW.
This means over time as more batteries come into the grid, they're competing with gas for the evening peak and driving down the price which will mean the gas generators need to get smart and cut their costs to match or they stay off because it's not profitable to run. For QPM that means drilling more wells to bring in ever cheaper gas, but then it's a balancing act with increasing well CAPEX fighting against declining electricity revenue.
TPS will be ok for 6 -10 yrs as it's an old plant and the CAPEX is long paid for, the only significant headwinds for it will be the aforementioned challenges and if they need to outlay capital to cover CO2 stack emissions capture or offset. The real question though is QPM's plan for a GT at Moranbah, Lazard shows that utility solar and onshore wind can already be built for cheaper than the fuel cost of most coal or gas plants, so unless they're securing the gas for virtually peanuts by the time they'd be ready to construct that it would make more sense to build a solar farm at Moranbah with a battery.
