QPM 2.70% 3.8¢ queensland pacific metals limited

No, it doesn't "make it clear" at all. The dynamics of the...

  1. 234 Posts.
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    No, it doesn't "make it clear" at all. The dynamics of the wholesale electricity market have changed drastically with the uptake of renewables, where daytime pricing (as seen currently) isn't economically viable. For both turbines to run, they need to run a baseload during the day time for a few hours to provide enough heat to get the second turbine going, and recent history shows that pricing between 12pm-4pm is extremely low and in shoulder seasons right now, pricing is negative throughout the day. The opportunity lies within peak demand power times, where renewables (solar) provide 0 generation at the time when the market most needs supply - and wind is also unreliable. My initial reaction was disappointment, but it cuts the operating costs associated with upkeep of the second turbine and it also will now free up gas to be distributed elsewhere. Dyno and CRL take around 20-21 TJ/day and with only 1 turbine running at TPS, this from memory is something like 1.1TJ/hour, I'd anticipate that they run around 4-5 hours on an average day, so excess gas will go somewhere. It will be something to do with the Moranbah Power opportunity (which would operate as peaking too) or it will be Micro-LNG for the nearby diesel emitters - also a C02 reduction opportunity for those operating these generators. Chris Ellison mentioned a similar story with WA miners on diesel who are also looking to switch to gas, so I believe it will happen in the near term future in QLD.

    The wholesale electricity market and its volatility is becoming more documented. Demand for electricity is increasing due to population growth (extremely prominent in previous 2 years in Australia), general uptake of electricity in EV's, home appliances, industry. Also, our climate is seeing more extreme weather events http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/temperature/maximum/median/seasonal/0, we continue to see a warmer climate and places such as QLD feel that particularly, which will drive demand even further. Watt Clarity has plenty of documented articles regarding demand for electricity hitting peaks in just the last year or so. Then you have the supply side, which is where the real problems lie. You have an aging coal fleet, which becomes more unreliable as it goes on (Callide is a great example) and gas/coal hasn't seen any new uptake due to demonisation by government and red tape. A large amount of renewables have come online, but the mega projects (Snowy 2.0) have largely been delayed and seen cost blowouts. Their is a reason why Eraring got given the greenlight to stay on extra 2 years (will be 4 probably) and rumours of Yallourn being extended are starting to pop up. The other problem with these renewables, is that they don't have storage function - they just operate when generation occurs. They aren't being deployed at the times the market needs it most.

    You just need to look at SA over the high demand winter period and how the renewable fleet held up (poorly). This created massive opportunity for gas operators such as Quarantine Power Station, who have already generated more revenue in FY25 than they did all of FY24 and realised some insane pricing. I don't believe the exact same story will happen in QLD, alot of further nuances and contingencies that need to be explored as they are 2 differently structured grids, but over the summer period you can almost be certain if some coal generators run into problems that TPS will generate an unpredictable level of $$$. This case may not play out, anything can happen, maybe no issues arise, but it is something to be considered.

    It is evidenced in recent quarterlies and over the previous year that they are growing gas steadily. No doubt however they will continue to run into challenges with the multitude of issues that come from operating and developing a gas field.

 
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