Hey @CMJR, I recall someone mentioned the figure of $22K at a...

Hey @CMJR, I recall someone mentioned the figure of $22K at a conference booth chat with one of the team.

FWIW, I've spitballed some TECH Stage 1 numbers against the AFS, using current nickel and cobalt spot, plus taken a few dollars off the remaining product figures to account for price cycles/not hitting nameplate etc - see grey shaded column to right.
All OPEX figures have been kept same as AFS.

Couple of unknowns:
Unsure whether the OPEX figures include sustaining capex. Big refineries would have large replacement costs when a particular unit reaches end of life/breaks down.
Unsure whether the exchange rate with a low AUD benefits the project or not.




So still making a profit, though is this enough to sustainably service debt and satisfy shareholders?
Pluses IMO are:
- TECH team are still at it engineering-wise, optimising circuits and looking for cost savings.
- The production tax credit would be a great financing enabler.
- New Caledonia situation has deteriorated significantly since the AFS, and a TECH project being built would throw a lifeline to the French territory. Not discounting some French Connection partnership.
- Battery Pass draws ever closer as does potential POTUS tariffs on Chinese minerals and possible Minerals Security Partnership with teeth.
- Suite of non-nickel co-products is a natural hedge against prolonged Nickel downturn.
- National Reconstruction Fund has barely opened their purse strings, with plenty of the $15B, and at least 1B for value-add in critical minerals still on offer.
- GM are getting their EV act together overall, which may allow them a little more leeway with adding to their QPM investment.
If you read this article on the raw minerals bill for the average EV, I struggle to see why the greenest nickel on the planet would not be enticing. The whole mineral component is about the cost of the tyres that go on the wheelset FFS, not the big scary quarter to a third of the cost of the vehicle some would have you believe, which is the battery pack as a whole.

C'mon!