@Shaq_01, re Post on Assays Result in 5N HPA, page-2:
How much revenue can we conservatively expect from our 5N sales ?
In Post #: 72440200 a conservative estimate with 50% of product being 5N being produced out of the total 4,000tpa & sold at a slight premium of $10K/t rather than a blue sky $25K/t would mean an extra A$20M in revenue, which would make a total of A$120M/year for HPA at the 4,000tpa rate.
Like many things QPM, there's an intriguing Q or two, with plenty of upside potential:
Q. If HPA demand follows many estimates [A4N reckon micro LEDS will double the LED market] then why not build the same unit in Stage 2 and pull in another $120M+revenue/year?
Q. Now the Feasibility Study has adopted purchased aluminium hydroxide as the base case scenario, how does this affect the byproducts, given we are not pulling this 4,000t of product out of the flow?
Q. Are QPM shopping the HPA to our offtakers GM/LGES/POSCO for use in their batteries?
Benefits to all parties with less suppliers to qualify and deal with, shipping savings etc.
This rainy afternoon I plugged some numbers into the AFS confobulator, and also checked out
AMEC's report on Production Tax Credits, as speculation has it the budget may offer this lifeline for the critical minerals sector.
The 10% rate mentioned and AMEX's preferred/realistic PTC structure would mean QPMs OPEX Stage 1 would have everything bar ore supply and transport qualify (515.4-176.5=338.9M), resulting in a tax credit of ~$34M.
This could alleviate the loss of revenue at the low cycle prices we see at present.
BTW, my numbers at US$20K nickel and US$30K cobalt still have us cranking out ~AU$350M+ EBITDA (including the little uptick from the extra purity HPA).
Also, and even more importantly, I feel the market has dumbed down the nickel industry to the LME spot price, and doesn't understand the relationship QPM would have with GM/LGES/POSCO, much like the lithium sector's focus on China spot, despite the disconnect with what the Japanese and Koreans are paying for their Li product (it's well above spot).
Our battery players would want to receive qualified, consistent product from trusted suppliers.
They wouldn't just pick up a few random bags of sulphate because it is low price, and shovel it into their cell product lines.
QPM and our offtake
partners would have a pricing formula that references the LME/similar but reduces volatility and supports both parties.
No 'screw you' too high or low, otherwise their cars are too pricey and don't sell / we go into C&M, they shut down their nickel-rich battery lines & don't sell.
Lastly, CO2 emissions.
Metals mining and processing are highly energy-intensive operations, with
the sector accounting for approximately 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions. It's really where QPM shines.
As I started to create a rudimentary
QPM & Planet Earth Nickel CO2 Comparison Emissions Chart, I realised what a rabbit hole the Life Cycle Analysis nickel field is.
No wonder the numbers are all over the place.
Here's what I've started with:
Entitykg CO2 equivalent / kg of nickelQPM (Minviro LCA assessed)-14.9AFR Undocumented Green6.0Blackstone Minerals Ta Khoa Project (Minviro LCA assessed)9.8BHP Scope 112.1Nickel Institute Global Average13.1Proposed Green Nickel Threshold20.0Ferronickel (Class 2)45.0Scarn Assoc Global Avg48.0Scarn Assoc. Indonesia58.6IEA Laterite (Matte via NPI)59.0Indo Nickel Pig Iron (Needs additional conversion to sulphate)69.1AFR Undocumented Dirty100.0
PS. Believe it or not?
Morawali Indistrial Park will soon have as much coal fired electricity generation as Mexico or Pakistan!
https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com...ization-of-the-indonesian-nickel-supply-chain
(20min delay)
