assumption reward tables ...

Warm greetings to all.
Many thanks to all contributors to this thread, it has been quite exemplary relating to shared fundamental assumptions/opinions & is always appreciated.
: )

For those interested, I thought that I'd throw my hat into the ring with some speculative reward tables reflecting indicative share-price values if all the boxes get ticked.
With-out too much commentary, I would like to simply express aggree-ance that CCI in my view does indeed warrant speculative considerations & we have a position via the options.
It is carrying extremely high levels of risk that has to be emphasized due to the underlying weakness of chrom(ite/ore) fundamentals, (http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/chromium/chrommcs06.pdf).

However, if management can secure niche off-take to the non-metalurgical market, then I believe they may produce without too many ripples being created & that is where the influence(s) & values of AKA (BEE) are paramount.
Very few base paralels to NDO have remote plausibility; ie fundamental risk(s) vs reward(s) are worlds apart & any switch should be regarded as a high risk speculative optimisation strategy only.
Brian is highly regarded by peers, has no other corporate obligations to any other listed company & has the motivations of a share-price performance renumeration (via options).
All historical time-lines have been broken, so a disclosure strategy & accountability/adherence will be imperative to regain market confidence/sentiment.
Thanks to forum members, we now have an approximate time-line to assess incrementally the stages necessary to go from point A, (where the company is now), to point B, (company producing relative to assumption paradigms below) to determine personal risk exposure/probability of eventuality.
Lower end p/e more probable than not due to commodity sentiment.

Hope this assists, warm regards to all & good luck in any & all positions.
: )




Nb- Disclosure & sentiment covered in the above.



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Assumption table #1.

Assume (1) production of 200,000 tpa begins within 6 months.
Assume (2) price received per tonne produced = US$140.
Assume (3) current shares on issue + convertable note + future capital raising = 1,250,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares.
Assume (4) ebitda per tone produced = AU$65, (costs at US$75 = US$48.1pt margin X 74% {project equity} nill allowance for cost over-run + tax).
Assume (5) market applies pe of 5x(a), 8x(b) & 10x(c) because;
i)open pit production is 2.5-4yrs.
ii)underground reserves > 25yrs.
iii)significant scope to increase production 25-50% in year 2, (ie from 200,000t/a - 250,000-300,000t/a).
Assume (6) accrued project tax credit is allowing (5) + (4) validity for year 1.

Therefore;

Assumption reward table #1a.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5a) = 5.2c per f/p.
CCI = 5.2c per f/p.
CCIO = 2.4c (intrinsic + (2.2c = 12 months time value}).


Assumption table #1b.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5b) = 8.3c per f/p.
CCI = 8.3c per f/p.
CCIO = 4.3c (intrinsic + {1c = 12 months time value}).


Assumption table #1c.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5c) = 10.5c per f/p.
CCI = 10.5c per f/p
CCIO = 7c (intrinsic + {0.015 = 12 months time value}).




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Assumption table #2.

Assume (1) production of 200,000 tpa begins within 6 months.
Assume (2) price received per tonne produced = US$160.
Assume (3) current shares on issue + convertable note + future capital raising = 1,250,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares.
Assume (4) ebitda per tone produced = AU$85, (costs at US$75pt = US$85pt margin X 74% {project equity} nill allowances for cost over-run or tax).
Assume (5) market applies pe of 5x(a), 8x(b) & 10x(c) because;
i)open pit production is 2.5-4yrs.
ii)underground reserves > 25yrs.
iii)significant scope to increase production 25-50% in year 2, (ie from 200,000t/a - 250,000-300,000t/a).
Assume (6) accrued project tax credit is allowing (5) + (4) validity for year 1.

Therefore;

Assumption reward table #2a.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5a) = 6.8c per f/p.
CCI = 6.8c per f/p.
CCIO = 3.3c (intrinsic + (1.5c = 12 months time value}).


Assumption table #2b.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5b) = 11c per f/p.
CCI = 8.3c per f/p.
CCIO = 4.3c (intrinsic + {1c = 12 months time value}).


Assumption table #2c.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5c) = 10.5c per f/p.
CCI = 10.5c per f/p
CCIO = 7c (intrinsic + {0.015 = 12 months time value}).






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Assumption table #3.

Assume (1) production of 200,000 tpa begins within 6 months.
Assume (2) price received per tonne produced = US$175.
Assume (3) current shares on issue + convertable note + future capital raising = 1,250,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares.
Assume (4) ebitda per tone produced = AU$100, (costs at US$75 = US$100pt margin X 74% {project equity} neutral for cost over-run + tax).
Assume (5) market applies pe of 5x(a), 8x(b) & 10x(c) because;
i)open pit production is 2.5-4yrs.
ii)underground reserves > 25yrs.
iii)significant scope to increase production 25-50% in year 2, (ie from 200,000t/a - 250,000-300,000t/a)
Assume (6) accrued project tax credit is allowing (5) + (4) validity for year 1.

Therefore;

Assumption reward table #3a.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5a) = 8c per f/p.
CCI = 8c per f/p.
CCIO = 4c (intrinsic + 0.01 = 12 months time value).


Assumption table #3b.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5b) = 12.8c per f/p.
CCI = 12.8c per f/p
CCIO = 9.3c (intrinsic + 0.015 = 12 months time value).


Assumption table #3c.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5c) = 16c per f/p.
CCI = 16c per f/p
CCIO = 12.5c (intrinsic + 0.015 = 12 months time value).




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Assumption table #4.

Assume (1) production of 200,000 tpa begins within 6 months.
Assume (2) price received per tonne produced = US$200.
Assume (3) current shares on issue + convertable note + future capital raising = 1,250,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares.
Assume (4) ebitda per tone produced = AU$125, (costs at US$75 = US$125pt margin X 74% {project equity} neutral for cost over-run + tax).
Assume (5) market applies pe of 5x(a), 8x(b) & 10x(c) because;
i)open pit production is 2.5-4yrs.
ii)underground reserves > 25yrs.
iii)significant scope to increase production 25-50% in year 2, (ie from 200,000t/a - 250,000-300,000t/a)
Assume (6) accrued project tax credit is allowing (5) + (4) validity for year 1.

Therefore;

Assumption reward table #4a.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5a) = 10c per f/p.
CCI = 10c per f/p.
CCIO = 6c (intrinsic + 0.01 = 12 months time value).


Assumption table #4b.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5b) = 16c per f/p.
CCI = 16c per f/p
CCIO = 12.5c (intrinsic + 0.015 = 12 months time value).


Assumption table #4c.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5c) = 20c per f/p.
CCI = 20c per f/p
CCIO = 16.5c (intrinsic + 0.015 = 12 months time value).