I've been playing around with some calculations trying to build a spreadsheet with various assumptions with regards to AGY.
What remains static is
1- production of 2000kT per year from July 2022
2- Puna profit share of 10%
3- Argentina Tax rate of ~25%
4- Operating production cost of ~$5500/ton for the 2000kT (best estimate) and ~$4650/ton for the 12,000kT plant.
5- We seem to have officially moved from 10,000 to 12,000kT plant (going through approval process)
6- The 2000kT plant is fully funded. The 12,000kT plant is not.
What assumptions (low, high and likely) is everyone looking at for:
1- Lithium price per ton in July 2022 (production date for the 2000kT plant) and July 2024 (probable production date for the 12,000kT plant)?
Current price is $US 19,355
2- PE Ratio... Some say 10, some say 15, some say 20... obviously the PE valuation is subjective but interested in knowing what do people feel is a fair valuation for a company in its final few months before commercial production in a growth sector.
3- US$/AUD$ Do we assume the 0.75 as the magic long term assumption?? (the weaker the Australian dollar gets the higher the AGY valuation)
4- Tonopah... What assumptions is everyone making here??
I plugged in some assumptions and came up with a current valuation of $0.24 based on the 2000kT plant, and when we factor in the 12,000kT (and allow for the $200million plant costs and Capital cost and time value of money) I come up with a valuation of $1.26.
The discrepancy between the valuation and the market cap as we draw closer to full commercial production is unlikely to remain this wide.
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I've been playing around with some calculations trying to build...
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7.4¢ |
Change
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Mkt cap ! $107.7M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
8.0¢ | 8.1¢ | 7.4¢ | $360.5K | 4.705M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 89403 | 7.4¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
7.5¢ | 189231 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 89403 | 0.074 |
2 | 113698 | 0.073 |
5 | 450000 | 0.072 |
7 | 348054 | 0.071 |
14 | 649597 | 0.070 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.075 | 189231 | 2 |
0.076 | 1000000 | 3 |
0.077 | 802800 | 3 |
0.078 | 400000 | 2 |
0.079 | 157590 | 3 |
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