what do you mean by commercial updates? from morgans this year:
Analysis ▪ Clear positive catalyst with firm line-of-sight to the potentially pivotal Ph2b top-line readout in December this year. ▪ In the biotech sector, especially among smaller and mid-sized companies, clarity on timelines for significant milestones typically leads to heightened investor interest and favourable market activity as the major catalyst approaches. ▪ We also note several positive signs have been observed in the Phase 2b trial, including higher patient recruitment than original design (48 versus 45), no patient dropouts with all patients to date progressing into the extension phase, suggesting patients may be experiencing benefits and are eager to continue. Additionally, the absence of serious adverse effects is reassuring, indicating that even higher doses of the drug are being well-received. Forecast and valuation update ▪ No changes to our forecasts or valuation at this stage. We maintain our A$0.23 target price and Speculative Buy recommendation. Investment view ▪ We view ANP as an outstanding proposition in the rare disease space with a strong scientific foundation for success, multiple near-term catalysts, and potential for accelerated approval. After slow progress on the clinical front in recent years, the new Board and management team have focused on delivering an outcome of the Phase 2b DMD trial by the end of CY24. A positive result will likely see a major rerating in the share price. We have a Speculative Buy rating and risk-adjusted DCF based target price of $0.23 per share. Price catalysts ▪ Monkey tox (mid-CY24) / Ph2b primary endpoint topline readout (Dec-24) / 12 month topline data (mid-CY25) / full readout (4QCY25) / partnering interest.
PER Price at posting:
8.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
