Needle, firstly, good luck to you and all holders through the...

Needle, firstly, good luck to you and all holders through the announcement – I hope you all make millions of dollars because the trial is a stellar success. I don't hold, and have no intention of holding unless I come across a more solid scientific rationale to support MBP that is far greater than my negative views and concerns that I have presented though I have yet to read on this board little convincing evidence though am open to be swayed hence why this is a discussion board and why I am posting here even though I don't hold. If my agenda here was to purely try and influence the SP so I could buy at a lower price perhaps I would have used a different login name don't you think rather than risk having past posts bought up???? Most of the views posted here on MBP are based on the spin put out by MBP who are on the public record as blatantly misrepresenting their trial results.

The issue of larger sample size needed to detect statistical significance is of course entirely valid, though I didn't need to wait to read MBP's response about this, naturally I was fully aware of this point yet I still arrived at the same conclusion: the results from their phase II are just random noise. Even the positive prosaic spin by MBP is all based around the 1 mg dose as there absolutely is no doubt at all that the drug did not work at inducing greater weight loss at any of the higher dosages above 1 mg. Now, before phase II, their smaller human trials suggested that about 10 mg was the most efficacious does – a finding that their phase II blew out of the water as 10 mg had absolutely no greater effect on weight loss than placebo. So now we have a trial using dosages of 0. 0.25, 0.5 and 1.0 mg and MBP have done a pretty poor job explaining what valid human data they have to support these lower dosages in my professional view.

I have also read here that there were serious methodological problems in the first trial that prevented excellent results from being seen. Firstly, it was a double-blind, randomised, placebo controlled trial with no reports of trial integrity being breached so already it was a very strong study to start with. If the problems have really been fixed then why the hell have they just not repeated the trial with same dosages???? They now have two mutually exclusive variables to deal with if the next trial is negative. I can just see the analysis now if the results are negative "The methodology was correct this time, but we used too low a dosage range so we will repeat the original trial with the higher doses now using our revised methodology". Too many goalposts being moved, too many holes in their data, far too much risk to buy in at the moment.

As to some other points I've read here hyping the fact that there are no side-effects to the drug compared to others on the market. Point 1: MBP is not on the market and whether it has none, minimal or lots of side-effects, that doesn't influence the probability of it having success in getting through trials in terms of demonstrating clinical efficacy in weight loss and point 2: has it ever occurred to anyone that one very plausible reason why the drug has almost no side effects, compared to all other medically approved weight loss drugs that do have side effects, is because it has very little effects on parameters directly related to significant weight loss and metabolic change high enough to cause this and thus likely explains why their phase II study was a failure?

That's it for me, won't post here anymore and will let the trial results be the proof of the pudding for mine and other's opposing views. My posts are unlikely to change the views of the regular posters here, but I hope at least it adds some balance to the arguments and deflates some of the hype on this board that may be unfairly influencing a lot of the less informed watchers on this board who are likely setting themselves up for a big fall.