Thought I'd share some research over the weekend after watching...

Thought I'd share some research over the weekend after watching the price action over the last 6 weeks.

I tried to attach the excel doc but had problems so just took some screenshots to show some examples, hopefully the formatting will be easy enough to understand.

So, I posed thequestion around a potential increase in shorts in the lead up to the HalfYearly Report, at the time SWM was trading 75.8c on Feb 8th and we lookeddestined to scrape into the ASX 300 rebalance.

At the close onFri 4/3/22 SWM finished ranked around 307th overall at 66.5c.

I've kept aneye across Shortman data to see if there's been a rise and lo and behold theshorts have increased six fold, albeit small with regards to total SOI.

The Shortman datais 4 days behind so only includes up to Monday 7/3/22 but open shorts climbedfrom 0.03% - 0.18% since Feb 15, 2021 (Half Yearly Report).

It'sinteresting to see in the daily volume on Thursday 3/3/22 that we reached ahigh of 71c around 10:20am before quickly falling back under 70c. The data shows26% of the daily volume was in fact sold short.

I've included a1 year and 3 year chart and overlaid it with the shorts chart in Photoshop. Itpaints quite the picture around the reduction in shorts and SP increases.

3 Year Chart

A few figures Inoted down were around spikes in Shorts & the Percentage % of SOI, andclosing SP as follows leading into reports.

Shorts peakedaround 42.9M or 2.85% of SOI in Dec 2019.

Aug 26, 2020 =35.9M (2.34% SOI) SP = 13c / Nov 5, 2020 = 34.6M (2.25%) SP = 19c

Feb 16, 2021 =10.8M (0.71%) SP = 58c / Aug 13, 2021 = 3M (0.19%) SP = 51.5c

1 Year Chart

The SP hit ahigh of 55.5c on Aug 16 before the shorts increased over the next few days:

Aug 17, 2021 =3.6M (0.26%) SP = 43c / Aug 20, 2020 = 6.4M (0.41%) SP = 44.5c

In the peak onOct 5, 2021 the total short = 7.9M (0.51%) SP = 39c

When the shortsclosed out the majority of shorts by Nov 17, 2021 the outstanding shortsdropped to just 732k (0.05%) SP = 64.5c which meant the share price hadincreased by 65% over a 6 week period.

Recent Daily Volume and Actual Short Data

In the last 3days leading up to the rebalance the daily volume shorted increased hitting 8%,26% and 14% of the daily totals. I found another website (Stocktrack) withshort data for the 8/3-10/3 and the shorts have closed out 2.8M so now at 0.01%of SOI.

The outstanding shorts have neverbeen lower!

Have to waitand see if this eases pressure and we head back north, but have a look at thenumbers in the excel sheet and it looks like after the shorts reduce theirposition the share price takes a few days to return to the uptrend depending onvolume

For anyonewanting to check the shorts:

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SWM

https://stocktrack.com.au/asx/swm/shorts

Please note noting is intended to be advice, just my own thoughts and research to identify any trends in price action.

Closing Thoughts

I'm not surehow long the current trends will last but at present we seem to have supportaround 61c (higher lows), fingers crossed for a move above the resistance68-71c levels and we can retest to our Feb highs.

No malicetowards anyone shorting as they offer longs a chance to top up at these levelsor trade around patterns that might present to increase holdings. Hopefully with the shorts reducing over the last few days to SWM lowest levels will be an indication that the share price might again rise and retest previous resistance and push through higher.

The recentvolume/decline isn't too surprising with global events and as many have statedhad firm guidance been given around dividends then perhaps SWM makes the ASX300 and we'd be trading somewhere between 70c and $1.00 presently.

I think it’sentirely plausible that the recent increased shorts have been large moneypositioning for what they believe a strong 12-18months met with inclusion tothe ASX 300 in the September rebalance.

SWM underJames' watch has done a great job delivering on their strategy to reduce debt,complete M&As and to increase viewers across traditional TV, BVOD andonline. Whilst it was put on hold, if we do end up selling the TX AustraliaTower we could stand to pocket $150m, which could be redirected to shareholders.

With plenty oflarge purchases going through pre and post Feb 15 reporting season I believe it'sonly a matter of time before the SP again pops!

SWM SHORT VOLUME SHORT_SWM_11Mar2022.csv.pdf