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21/12/20
12:31
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Originally posted by KirbyMuxloe:
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"APT trades a massive 60+ times sales. That is huge. " That's not exactly true. Leaving aside the underlying sales that finished FY2020 at $11.2bn and is now at a run rate of over $16bn and on course to double and with no change to the underlying business model; the Afterpay total income (less Pay Now and other income) stood at $502.7m at FY end in June 2020. So if you applied today's valuation ($30bn) to June's TTM income figures it would be 60x. But obviously it wasn't valued at $30bn then just as it no longer has a 502.7m run rate anymore. Right now with only 2 weeks until end of Q2 and with underlying sales already confirmed as increasing by 112% YOY after the November update and 50%+ ahead of the June figure, then the TTM of Afterpay income is likely ~$750m and therefore trading at 40x. If they do increase 112% for the full year and reach $1bn in AfterPay income for FY2021 then they are trading at a forward multiple of 30x. For a company growing at 112% I can tell you that 40x TTM and a forward multiple of 30x is not massively valued relative to the rest of its cohort, (Snowflake, Shopify, Teledoc, Mercadolibre, Peloton, SEA and Ontrack). KM
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Massive assumptions in your calculations. This is priced to perfection and it needs to grow at 100% p.a. for the next 7-9 years to command this price tag.. hard task when competition increases, RBA/Govt are likely to put pressure on the industry, bad debts likely to increase and retailers dispute high merchant fees that can't be passed on.