I hope you don't mind me looking at this from a different angle...

I hope you don't mind me looking at this from a different angle Sharks.

The situation may be best summarised as cause and effect. The effect you have described in some detail by observing that sometime the price moves first on the AU market and at other times it moves first in the US market but generally they are pretty closely tied once both markets have completed their trading day.

I suggest that the cause is probably the more pertinent question. I suggest that as a general rule any significant price movement in any direction requires a catalyst to cause it to move. Such catalysts are generally company announcements, analyst reports, major news items (BP disaster etc), takeover speculation (or fact), significant changes in commodity prices, new percieved risks such as cyclones etc.

When the catalyst happens prior to or during the AU trading day but after the close of the US trading day then the impact of the event will generally be reflected in the AU closing price first. For catalysts that occur after close of trade in AU then ADR trading will react to it first and we will follow. Neither is really the dog nor the tail.

We are an Australian company and most of our official annoucnements coincide with the AU trading day. Given this it generally would not be an unreasonable expectation that the AU market will move first wowever our entire business operation is in the US and that is where all of the action occurs so this is where so many other influences come into play.

We have JV partners and neighbours who are keenly drilling and the results of which may be very significant to us. These entities are primarily US companies making announcements about their operations during the US market operating times.

The US oil plays make headlines in the US while we rarely read about them in mainstream AU press. Many more US analysts follow these stocks than is the case in AU so we are usually discussing the latest US analysts report on this forum rather than one sourced from an AU firm.

We even get reports from US farmers watching the truck movements, the tanks and other infrastrcuture that gets put in place, not to mention hitting up the oil company workers for info in the pub.

The catalysts driving our price are all over the place and can come at any time. A steady stream of US analyst reports increasing their valuations has certainly been a recent catalyst. Suffice to say that whoever gets the info first and is able to take advantage of it will generally do so. As an AU company with our operations on the other side of the world we can't count on being the first to know anything. Holding the stock appears to be the only way to ensure you are well positioned for whatever catalyst comes next. If you hold you don't need to beat the next guy into the queue.