Gaurski, your question of which market leads the way is a...

Gaurski, your question of which market leads the way is a perenniel one here on the SSN thread. I was considering just this question again myself early this morning when I was doing my usual check on the amex price, and the progress on the charts. What occurred to me by comparing the asx and amex price charts since the breakout of the longish consolidation on December 29th was as follows:

1. On December 28th, before the breakout, the asx price closed at 6.0, and the amex price closed at 1.12. 1.12/20 = 5.6, so at that time the asx was leading and the amex was lagging.

2. On Feb 1st, when the price peaked, the asx price peaked at 13.5 before closing at 13.0, while the amex price peaked at 2.94 before closing at 2.60. The amex peak converts to 2.94/20 = 14.7, almost 10% higher than the peak of 13.5 on the asx, whereas the close converts to 2.60/20 = 13.0, an exact 20:1 ratio to the asx price.

3. Yesterday/last night the asx price closed at 13.0, while the amex price closed at 2.71, which converts to 13.5, a slight premium to the asx price of 13.0.

What all this tells me, if I try to interpret the psychology of the market price action (which is what charting is really all about btw), is that:

1. 2 months ago Australians were leading the Americans by a slight margin in appreciating SSN's value.

2. During the breakout there was consistently greater volume traded in the US and the higher peak price ratio suggests that the Americans got more excited in the process, resulting in the high peak price.

3. At the close on Feb 1st, the overheating in the amex market had blown off and come back to the asx valuation by closing at exactly the 20:1 ratio price.

4. Currently the amex price remains marginally at a premium, but it remains pegged back to the asx valuation.

So atm in the sense that there is a marginal premium on the amex market, the amex market is slightly leading the asx market, but in the sense that it has been pegged back to the asx valuation, it appears to me that the asx market is really the current price setter.

Just my interpretation, I'm sure there are several others, and I'm no qualified psychologist or economist, just a humble trader/chartist/student of the markets...

Cheers, Sharks.