TNT 0.00% 13.0¢ tesserent limited

ASX Investor YouTube Interview: Julian Challingsworth, page-16

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    I am hoping their FY21 revenue is more than $40M as their first half was $28M. wink.png
    With 5 acquisitions contributing revenue for the whole of the half and one new one for half of this half, I would expect revenues of $50M as a minimum for the half, any less than this would raise questions over the $150M, or current around $110M run rate.
    With the growth potential and synergies (could be what the market is waiting for as an indication of how well the acquisitions have been brought into the company) tail winds in this sector should see $150M revenues as a base for this company. The issue with valuing the company is when you work out what TNT is paying for each company you are looking at averaging 5 times EBITDA and about 1.2 times revenue, added together comes to about half current MC. But the value placed on a private company in MA situations is a fraction of what would be expected from a listed company.
    I believe current run rates and expected EBITDA from all the parts of TNT justify current market cap, if management cannot maintain or improve on those EBITDA numbers then either the original figures on purchase were overstated or there are serious issues with integrating the businesses.
    With cyber budgets increasing dramatically both in the public sector and private, regulation changes and the increased reported cyber crime, and if TNT get it right, run rates of over $200M from the current portfolio of companies is not to far away. Added to that as the company expands, underlying financials should become a lot more predictable and therefore there will be a lot less Fear Greed swings and the big end of town will be comfortable with large holdings, at the moment this is still a very young company slowly building a track record.
    Market is definitely in a Fear phase, not helped by very large single order sales being dumped on the market accounting for half the daily volume. There are buyers out there but they are in no hurry to buy as the market keeps coming to them.
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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