Thanks for those back of a coaster calculations. Just one estimate you might need to pull back a fair way.
You assumed that the machines would be used 30,000 times each day. The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention report that every year at least 795,000 people in US have a stroke. That works to be about 2,200 people in the US have strokes each day. Using your figure of $50 going to the company for each use that would suggest revenue of closer to $40m pa (assuming everyone who is having a stroke gets tested with a Gen 2 machine or half having strokes and that number again of false positives get tested). Assuming gen 2 gets widespread use around the first world we would be talking about what is in effect an annuity of say $100m to augment the main product, which is machine sales and upkeep.
I do agree with you that with these products this company offers fantastic potential. Resmed has a market cap of around US$20b and Cochlear is around A$17b so, sure, successful companies in the medtech sector can hit big numbers.
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