Alter I can't blame your strategy, it's not actually that bad. Create fear where there is none, in order to short Galaxy and maximize profit. Then buy low and change your position and signals to buy. I just wish you would get your facts straight though, your timeline keeps adjusting from a 2018 price drop to a 2019 price drop.
However, you forget one key point: lithium demand will only increase while the supply will be tight.
Why: because if you look at the funding needed to bring mines online, you realize that there is not enough money invested into lithium projects. This fact has never been mentioned or even argued with because it can't be disputed.
Result: Chinese companies are advancing millions of dollars of prepayments, e.g. Like this deal, GXYs industry record premium pricing for 2017, and other companies (e.g. mineral resources and PLS) selling DSO (ore, which is raw material that Chinese processors need to deal with to get battery quality prices). These numbers don't lie.
Fact: the timelines to bring on mines has been grossly exaggerated in order to bring mines online, delays are almost guaranteed.
Example: GXY bringing on Mt Cat was estimated to be online (around March 2016), reality: nothing shipped until just recently. Orocobre took about 5 years to bring on their brine project and still have quality concerns. Pilbaras ambitious timelines have been met with delays over environmental permit issues and needs hundreds of millions of dollars to even begin construction (original timeline: 2018, it's looking that the reality is 2019) Mt Marion, even with Ganfengs help, was also delayed and just recently completed their second shipment.
Greenbushes expansion, let's see if that comes online by 2018.
La Negra, ALBs project, will have a chance to come online but they have to pay 40 percent royalties to the Chilean government when they start shipping.
Online currently: AustrAlia: Mt Cat, Mt Marion, Greenbushes
SA: SQM, FMC, ALB, and Ore, with only SDV and LAC/SQM/Ganfeng/Thai oil project coming online.
Point: The Chinese and the Americans are desperate for lithium and they know it because there is no EV and grid storage revolution until they have capacity to do so. (e.g. BYD making deals directly with SA to secure lithium supply, VW is next in line)
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