On this one I'm much less bullish strauss and not attempting to down-ramp, just explain my observations. There is no doubt that many recent tech stocks listed and rose significantly, on announcement, on completion/re-listing, somewhere in between or afterwards.
I am beginning to feel though that the market sentiment in general may have a significant bearing on the medium term outcome of these deals. Even moreso with the pre-revenue plays.
Adding to this (and I don't include DUO directly, perhaps its caught up in the aftermath though) some of the very successful back-door stocks this year have now had several months or more to prove themselves. Some have done, but many also have disappointed and drifted back massively from their highs and some well under their listing prices.
Earlier in the year the market in generally was often touted as 'expensive' and whilst heading up, may have made for even more appeal/incentive to get in early on some new companies or opportunities.
In my opinion for the best chance for these listing to succeed and give the 5-10 baggers that everyone loves there needs to be as many of the following as possible:
- A market trending upwards
- An acquisition in a trendy sector/space
- A really unique, novel proposition
- A cloud or SAAS or IAAS or low capex highly scalable service
- A product/service which will save clients money
- Good management and marketing to shareholders
- Good luck
On a more fundamentals view (which is tough without information) I am not as excited by DUO because whilst its in a growing sector and has some nice buzzwords and statistics, its main selling point appears to be 'fear' of data loss, intrusion etc. I am not for a moment dismissing the relevance of data security, however this is an expense for a customer potentially over and above what they do now - so likely not as easy a sell as "
we can provide you xxx service for 50% less cost than how you currently do things". In a flat or downwards market again I think it may be harder for the company to sell the vision to potential shareholders when there are so many other 'cheap' stocks around (having dropped hugely in the recent sell offs).
All this being said, I don't see the price staying at 1.2c for ever, just that expecting a 100%+ return any-time soon will in my opinion require a stellar job by management.
