The market is governed by sentiment. If the prevailing feeling is that US demand for Chinese and Indian made products will drop then as sure as day turns into night eventualkly it will flow on to a declining market.
One indicator that the top has been reached is the number of takeovers/takeover activity. When we are coming out of a downturn there is heaps of organic growth and as we reach the top new demand growth eases off and companies who are cash laden look to takeover other companies to take up the slack.
I might be wrong but from my perspective we have seen a fair amount of takeover activity in the past year.
US comsumers account for $9 trillion pa, China about $1 trillion and India $600 bill. So these numbers mean that Asia cannot make up for any drop in US consumer demand. In turn this will mean a drop off in demand for resources.
The only uncertainty is how much we will be effected and how long any downturn will last.
The only real certainty is that history will not let us down and will be repeated. Every good time is followed by a downwer of some sort. It is only a matter of time before the party ends.
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