P Pfeifer. the worst possible scenario for short term POO may be...

P

Pfeifer. the worst possible scenario for short term POO may be that

1/  No Opec agreement

2 No OPEC agreement and Saudi start to pump the extra 2mbpd they claim to have, POO will crater.

Why would Saudi choose option 2?  postpone Aramco float by 6/12 months. Allow time to completely destroy Russian  forex reserves,to the point that mad Vlad has to put his hand in his own pocket and start returning the billions he has stolen....too late ha ha ha etc
Destroy North Sea and the other high cost producers and keep shale in its box,

Good luck to anyone wanting to buy 5% Aramco which has not had an independent verification of reserves since early 80's. what is 5% of nothing?

People say ''no that would never happen as Saudi would lose friends''.....they do not have any friends, just  self interest and shared interest.

This would then see 2018 as next possible Opec plus Russia agreement that would still not work as they always cheat, except by then the competition may have scaled back

If Saudi had gone for the throat at the very start, instead of a lingering death of a thousand cuts then 2017 my have brighter recovery prospects.

I am invested in oilers, very heavily so. I still do not expect to see much in recovery terms until 2019 when the oiliest place in the oiliest timeline with 88e king of the heap comes into its own

Then again what do I know