" I think lots of shareholders will not be happy with ii) and iii) "
Imo this would be a huge mistake Notty and a very near sighted one at that due to the reasoning below.- Apologies for the rehash from the other thread buts imo its appropriate to this discussion.
- As they have commented they are hoping for between 100-150bbls/day which should make the play economic at the P50 resource risk. So that will allow the play to cover production costs and have a half decent profit.
The telling thing could be that if they r able to determine that the decline rate is more a hybrid play between unconventional and conventional then that makes the play that much more attractive to any suitors as the higher permeability and pore pressure may well result in a better recovery % of this massive HRZ resource and that could lead to what the company mentioned in the annmnt re a significant resource upgrade and hopefully at a lower risk profile given the potentially proven extractability.
Its actually what one would prefer over a high IP well and I think I posted a while back its not necessarily a blockbuster initial production rate that we're after here. Sure it would be good to be up towards the 150bbl/day but it will also be a great result if they can extract a better % of this resource in the longer term. It also means they don't have to go plugging holes in the HRZ every 5 seconds to keep up their production rate.
We also have the potential of the HUE as well which I don't think is included in the original post Ice 1 numbers. So we have the potential for not only better HRZ recovery but also a possible stacked play !!!
Ultimately its all about making this play as big and juicy a target as the JV possibly can so in effect any potential buyer simply cant say no to a decent deal.
d.
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