And what of the unfractured zone (between U and L zones) in this regard Oily ?
We have greater than 70% hydrocarbon saturation throughout the HRZ which is an industry accepted number.
Managing Director of 88 Energy Limited, Dave Wall commented: “As expected, the
permeability results from the ‘super highways’ are excellent and provide further support for a resource play that
could yield production rates more akin to those normally experienced in conventional wells. An
increasing body of evidence from Icewine#1 supports a case for potentially exceptional flow rates from the HRZ. The next step is to test this theory via the drilling of Icewine#2H, which will be a horizontal well with a multi-stage fracture stimulation.
http://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/01726483.pdf
This statement was made in reference to the 20 times permeability annmnt as ref above.
We have never been given the relative location of these zones.
But my assumption, maybe an assumption too far, is these zones (?) r situated in the central unfracced zone.
This is by the default assumption that the comment was made when referencing the zones to be fracced in the update:
http://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/01865150.pdf
that the intention was to frac only the more similar stress regime zones and hence the central unfracced zone had less relative stress consistency perhaps due to the 20 X higher permeability.
The question then becomes IF the above is the case, and one can be pretty certain these zones are thought to be a significant contributor to potentially better expected than standard flow rates, are these zones simply a better flowing conduit for the liquids that hold the vapour phase hydrocarbons or do they hold secondary properties other than flow.
If one thinks about a potentially additive situation then it begins to gel in ones mind just how this may work.
Once the frac juice backflow is complete and the hydrocarbons are given the opportunity to flow on their own and the proppant has been confirmed as secure in the fractures (being held by the stress forces of the strata) then the choke can be gradually opened giving the reservoir the potential to flow.
Now just how well will it flow, is the big question on all our minds.
Well, finally an epiphany, in my mind at least, as to why the JV has constantly hinted at conventional like flows and how this HRZ will achieve this.
Its obvious to visualize the central zone as being like a pipe quickly draining the HRZ but its a little more complex than this unsurprisingly.
Its important to note that although these permeability numbers r high that the surrounding shale above and below are tight relative to the central zone with lower permeability numbers, hence the reasoning as to why they fracced the U and L zones.
But don't forget the comment that these zones were higher in hydrocarbon content, or the better hydrocarbon kitchens if U like.
" These two zones were chosen largely based on areas with similar stress profiles, coincident with
where hydrocarbon concentration is highest."
http://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/01865150.pdf
Now one must get a bit lateral with ones thinking, both figuratively and literally.
So we have fracced, back flowed and started release of hydrocarbons to the larger fracture channels and then the well bore.
No doubt the assumed complex fracture network reached into the central zone and that this was one of the primary aims in sourcing the better flow charateristics of the much higher permeability zone. But a bit more on this later.
With the overpressure equilibrium being exposed to gradual choke pressure/flow release a pressure gradient is set up and the fractures will begin to collect and drain hydrocarbons to the well bore. But added to this we have the central higher permeability zone (if the assumption is correct) that is now experiencing a similar relative pressure drop and here's the important concept, the higher permeability zone will effectively translocate these pressure drop signals through a much larger are/volume than what would be apparent if the rock mechs were consistent all the way through the HRZ strata.
In other words
we should potentially see better push FROM A MUCH LARGER AREA/VOLUME of the HRZ becos of this central zone conduit.
But here's an interesting thought to add to the above.
Ive mentioned before we r initiating fracturing in the horizontal not the vertical, and this has always been a bit of a conundrum for me.
When one thinks about the penetration of the complex fracture network from a horizontal perspective, the maximal area of fractures exposed to the central zone
will be the finer fractures. Closer to the well bore there will be larger fracture penetration but
not of the significance of the number of larger fractures reaching the central zone when fracturing in the vertical plane and with multiple primary fractures along a much larger interface with the parallel central zone !!!
I guess what I'm saying is yes I'm beginning to think that the HRZ will indeed perform very well (conventional like) due to the higher permeability super highway zone (central zone ?).
But U say yehhhh, but the super confident of us already assumed as much.
However, and here's the potential kicker:
Imo we could well see a
RECORD MULTIPLYING FACTOR once we convert to a horizontal lateral due to the simple fact that they will be able to maximize the larger fractures of the network in contact with this superhighway conduit.
And just one more factor.
They have suddenly got the digit out with permitting the next lot of wells and this includes the highest probability lateral test well off the current FB pad.
Imo, as long as they get good flow from Ice 2V they r in a damned hurry to confirm my hypothesis on how this central zone superhighway might ultimately affect the vertical to horizontal multiplier they r soooo keen to bring up in each preso.
Epiphany over.
Praying, in my own unique Pagan way, that the above fits whats been going on.
d.
HTH not hinders
P.S. Important to note this should not be considered professional analysis/advice and we should all still wait, PATIENTLY, as DW has mentioned, for the GOR/flow results for any kind of confirmation of the above.
However there is likely to be a the third well of the Icewine trilogy with Ice 3H !!!
Stayed tuned and try and stay on the edges of those seats in the upcoming weeks Guys.
I'll be particularly interested in just what recovery factor they model if the central zone super perm highway effect is confirmed.
It may well be why PB has put around 3 times the resource number on this shindig compared to the D&M statistical number.
Strap Yourselves in the ride is FARRRR from finished imho.
(20min delay)