The recovery rate of frack fluid has not been the same...

The recovery rate of frack fluid has not been the same throughout the flowback process. Initially it was quick, now it's slowed massively.

So you have got to go by whatever the constant recovery rate is.

In the 2nd week we recovered 2%.

If the next announcement states that we are around 17% recovery then maybe we can assume that 2% a week in the rate of recovery.

Based on your assumptions/calculations - 1million gallons of frack water was used. Which is quite possibly accurate. I did some research and found something which stated between 1million and 10million gallons was typically used to frack a well, and as our well is Vertical and therefore probably needed less frack fluid, and to be on the cautious side - I have also totally assumed 1million gallons was possibly used.

At a 2% recovery rate per week this works out at approx 84 barrels per day at what would be a choked rate. If this is somewhat accurate, then oil flow should get into the 100+bpd range....

But we have no clue...

-We have no clue how much water was used.
-We have no clue what the recovery rate is.

But if we are told earlier this week that we are now at 17% recovery then we can more closely assume that indeed 84bpd is the choked flow rate of water.

The next announcement could be anything though.

-We could have done a shut-in and the water may have now soaked into the reservoir and hydrocarbons may have been released.