ASX Today, page-9338

Theres still a lot that needs to come together Moma, and I dont want to put a damper on the imbibe or assume the negative, as it doesnt make much sense to me that theyd still go ahead with 2V if they didnt think it had good chance of playing out positively in terms of flow, but there r a couple of aspects one needs to be carfeul with.

The first of these is whats happening in the central unfracked zone.

They made the judgement that they wernt going to frac this zone but then it turned out the upper and lower zones were in pressure communication and they ended up drilling the plug as these two zones musnt have been showing any great pressure differential.

So we have a third zone that must have decent permeability for presure communication.

So what hapens with any frac juice that makes its way to this zone given that they probably wouldnt have calculated for frac juice loss into this volume of the reservoir ?

This possibility would be tempered by the fact that the fracture network should have been geting to its perimeter or finer fractures by the time it reached this central zone.

The other issue I touched on but avoided previously, and that was layering of the permeability variations in the shale.

This can set up variations in the pressure and capillary force gradients within the strata and may give issues with how the hydrocarbons move towards the fractures espc when this aspect is related to variance in wettability of different minerals within the HRZ.

This is why they r allowing for a decent imbibe period which will hopefully interact with the hydrocarbons by effectively expelling them but not dislocating any of the flow shich can be another ussue all over again.

To me this is still a binary outcome but that it relies on many factors within the HRZ coming together.

Its interesting that they had the confidence to forego the micro stim so one might assume their confidence in the structural understanding of the HRZ was very good. But then why did they have to drill the plug after not forseeing the communication aspect between the upper and lower zones ?

Time will tell.

d.