After watching Tim’spresentation today I have put down a few thoughts about some of the points he made. BTW @VMPhas been saying similar things for months, however
A simple Google search asking about average industry PE ratios gave methe following
Q: What is the average PE ratio for mining companies in Australia?
The industry is trading at a PE ratio of 11.3x whichis lower than its 3-year average PE of 13.7x.
Tim Goyder today reiterated that Kathleen Valley will mine between 600to 650 thousand tonnes starting mid 2024 – the current price is $4000 per tonne(His words not mine). This gives a minimum of $2.4 billion as Tim putsit – free cash flow.
Based on the ratio quoted above of 11.3 LTR’s share price if itdelivers "just" the industry PE should be
Earnings of $2.4 billion x 11.3 PE = Market Cap of $27.12 billion
$27.12 billion divided by Shares on issue of 2,200,480,460= A Share Price of $12.33
Tim was very “polite” about Albermarle's offer but clearly, their paltry$2.50 is so far off the pace it's ridiculous. Tim pointed out they could recoup their money from two years of mining at Kathleen Valley. That ain't gonna cut it. However, I think based on the way he spoke about Albermarle that there is still a lot to play out in that space. They may well return.
DYOR not financial advice.
Clearly, the good ship Liontown has only justleft the dock.
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