LTR 1.55% 95.0¢ liontown resources limited

Quite how they get LLL having a post tax NPV more than 50%...

  1. 161 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 88
    Quite how they get LLL having a post tax NPV more than 50% higher than LTR despite having a marginally smaller resource escapes me. But what this spreadsheet doesn't tell you is that Mali had a coup in 2020 and another one in 2021, one before that in 2012, and is currently under military rule. It ranks highly on political instability and corruption indexes, there's a UN peacekeeping force in place, and Wagner PRC is also running around the country. LLL only own 40% of their resource, their closest port is nearly 900K away in another country (which itself suffered a coup in 2021!), their JV with Gangfeng and Mali location eliminates them from IRA consideration, and if they do get to production in 2024, generating that much cash in a country with a GDP of only $19B is going to put a big target on their back IMO.

    The real story of that spreadsheet is that while they may appear undervalued, perhaps the market sees them as accurately valued.
 
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