Just for the record, I was providing an interpretation of the discussion on here by a number of posters of late. Obviously Gina is increasing her stake in LTR but
currently is unwilling to go beyond $3 a share. And obviously has now some form of blocking stake that may make ALB go away and give her an edge in a future takeover. That is that theory.
My personal view is I would not discount Gina using her stake as a vehicle to get a concession out of ALB as she does not have lithium experience, as per my
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70111937
In that post I state "at
t this stage it is not clear what Gina's strategy is here - my gut feel is she is going to use her share accumulations to foster her own nest by cutting a deal with Albermale (or MIN), given she does not have experience in spodumene. I don't think MIN does either given Mt Marion was actually a JV with Ganfeng btw." Obviously before she cuts that deal she will need to ensure shorters are 'rewarded' for the shares she has been able to buy (however that is done).
My view is be wary of white knights like Gina, but time will tell what is the overriding play here. We are simply pawns in a bigger play, and it does boil down to what TG does with his shares (and whether he will support the ALB bid in the absence of another bid).
This is a classic play for an explorer about to become a miner - been LTR took the risks of exploration to production, but now someone else wants all the free cash flow benefits as risks have been reduced (given any increase in capex will be paid off quickly by free cash flow when production starts).
Hopefully in the previous post I correctly summed up your view and those of others who support your view - the post before this one. I agree the 'theory' has merit, and it does have appeal IMO (although at the back of my mind I feel Hancock has a bigger strategy at play around downstream processing and getting into bed with an established lithium player.
Refer above, as I feel you may have misinterpreted what I was saying. I was just jotting down the theory, and there is a lot of ifs in that theory. All it would take is Albermale to increase the bid and Gina's friends - the shorters if that is where she is getting her shares from - are in serious trouble.
Agree on the issue of demand supply as I have also posted about in the past and this schematic I did a while ago I like looking at -
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Prices are falling but the irony is they are still well above what most producers/prospective producers have used in their DFS's. What's the bet the 'angst' in your document is short term btw. And if you are really serious how will that impact your own lithium plays. China dominates markets and it is why breaking China's dominance in markets is a key.
All IMO
(20min delay)