ASX Today, page-33348

@Scarpa IMO what you have written about the possibility of ALB and Gina teaming up is the most plausible scenario I’ve read to date, maybe throw in MinRes as well.

To me it was always a Balance Sheet stretch for ALB to buy Liontown. ALB are going to have 4 trains at Kemerton plus their plants at Qinzhou and Meishan to feed.

As Joe Lowry points out, they are not good operators and have partnerships with other companies where the partner runs the mine.

A JV between ALB, Gina and possibly MinRes would make perfect sense for all 3. ALB would get it’s ore, Gina & Ellison a good investment. Note too MinRes has recently raised money and worked in cahoots with Gina for the takeover of Warrego.

Even if they get 75% of the vote and it’s voted up, it doesn’t mean they’ll get 75% of the shares. Even if ALB & Gina are working together they are not guaranteed to get 90% where they can compulsorily acquire the minority shareholders.

They only need 50.1% to get control, then ALB can direct the SP6 to where ever it likes - though they have indicated they’ll honour the offtake agreements.

If they can get to 75%, they’ll be able to pass special resolutions, which for example would be required to delist the company.

By then Gina may well have 19.99%, ALB already has 5%, they only need another 25% to get to 50.1%

The Shorts have been increasing of late which to me indicates these investors don’t think the takeover will get up, and certainly not increased in price.

If it is voted down, they can make the bid hostile (25-35% of takeover bids are hostile). Maybe walk away for a few months and come back after the SP drops.

The danger in this is the KV plant is due for completion this Q, with commissioning starting Q1 next year. Personally I think they’ll struggle to keep this timetable, though I realise most here would disagree with me.

Again this is all speculation, if Gina is not working with ALB it will be near on impossible for them to get 75% of the vote or get 50.1% if they go hostile.