As a final point to my post above, one thing that has bugged me from Albermale's offer of $3 per share was the words around 'it been a final offer". Then Hancock waltzes in and starts buying shares, and at this stage has stated in a very defacto way that $3 a share is all she is willing to pay.
My view is actually this could be a systematic play by Albermale and Gina to take control of LTR, were total ownership not an option, and LTR remained listed on the ASX. ALB is doing the due dilligenece - is it for them only, or more than just one party.
Note: Greenbushes is held by a private company of which Albermale owns 49% of. I would not be surprised if Albermale, after its due dilligence works with Gina to take control of LTR either by: i.) LTR remaining a listed entity in which Hancock/Albermale own greater than 50% of its shares, or ii.) the entity becomes a private entity with ALB owning say plus 50%, Hancock 20%, someone else 30%.
If I recall correctly, it was Tiangi who bought Talison (owner of Greenbushes) and then a year later let ALB JV into Greenbushes with a 49% stake, and more recently I think IGO has come into the fold. Whilst ALB is seeking a scheme of arrangement, there is nothing IMO stopping ALB from accepting any shares offered to it by LTR shareholders even if they cannot get the 75% over the line in terms of the SOA. If ALB takes 30.1% and Gina gets to 19.99%, that gives the 2 combined over 50% of shares in LTR and control.
As a final point, Gina is tactical. I doubt very much she has entered buying LTR without a plan or strategy. That plan either IMO involves ALB or MIN, noting teh LTR bid really arose from ALB's Wodgina deal falling down. That deal was initially about supplying ALB's Kemerton facilities in part, and unless Greenbushes ramps production up then ALB does need to look elsewhere for spod to supply its Kemerton facilities.
We are simply all speculating at this stage. It is going to be interesting when ALB completes its due diligence its next steps. At that point in time I suspect we will be in a better position to see whether ALB is i.) going alone, or ii.) whether there was a coordinate play here between ALB and Hancock, or iii.) whether indeed Gina decided on a blocking stake to JV with someone else other than ALB (and thus leave ALB high and dry with its Kemerton plans).
I don't see Gina accepting just a board seat on LTR as her only play here is my point. There is more to this si teh point we are debating here.
I am not as definitive as some I guess. I guess I have a different perspective to many here including
@anatol .
Anyway all IMO IMO
All IMOThanks for your thoughts. Always welcome.
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